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FUTURE OF ISRAEL GAS EXPORT UP TO 2050 & TURKEY

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by Oguzhan Akyener:

Despite its small population and territory, Israel is one of the most influential countries in the region. This is mostly due to global lobbying achievements, strong economy, high technology and military products, having support of ultra-rich Jewish people around the world and additionally being a natural strategic partner of USA.

Until the last decade, Israel’s name could not be associated with energy resources although she has owned the same features above and the strong influence in the region. After some discoveries such as Tamar, Leviathan, Tanin and Karish inside its offshore boundaries, Israel has started to be introduced as the future’s important gas exporter in the region.

From the sight of international affairs between Turkey (who is also another strategic partner of USA) and Israel; after the 2009 Davos statements of the Turkish President (as a result of Israel’s cruelties in Palestine) and Mavi Marmara irruption of Israel, relations come to a rupture.

After the end of 2015, while Turkey’s relations were strained with Russia and naturally, gas import security raised alerts. And by adding this situation some other political reasons, Turkey and Israel have taken steps forward to reestablish good relations (by the way, it has been claimed that Israel also needs Turkey for an economic gas export to the due markets).

Before the coup, Israel has agreed to pay compensations to the families of the Mavi Marmara victims. And after the coup, this step and other due items have been negotiated and accepted by both governments.

With this alteration in the affairs between Israel and Turkey, energy, as it is stated, has become the most important issue that prepared both sides to have been eager to solve the problems in between. And now there are quite different scenarios, claimed by the experts, about the Israel’s gas export route to Turkey and EU. In addition to these scenarios, unfortunately, the solution for the long-lasting Cyprus matter that stands against Turkish red lines, might find a ground to be asserted according to some Turkish experts.

However, are these scenarios coherent from the point of reserves, export potentials, economics and other sights? What might happen in the future? For a possible gas transit or gas sales situation, may a country allow its red line policies to be relinquished?

In this study, after analyzing the reserves, export potential of Israel, and possible export options, Turkey’s positioning, Cyprus matter and sales to EU conditions are tried to be detailed with the technical and economical sights in addition to politics.

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